Predicting Maize (Zea mays) productivity under projected climate change with management options in Amhara region, Ethiopia

Maize is an important cereal crop in Ethiopia. yield has been declined Ethiopia mainly due to water scarcity, low soil fertility and heat stress. Currently, limited technologies are available the study region that increases maize productivity. If models properly calibrated, they effective tools crops responses environmental factors. Assessing impact of future climate on may help develop adaptation strategies. The objectives this were (1) calibrate evaluate CERES model DSSAT technology for simulating phenology (2) assess projected change productivity (3) promising management practices maize. was assessed using 17 GCMs (CMIP5) run under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios. Two regimes treatments (rainfed irrigated) four rates nitrogen (0, 46, 92 138 kg ha−1) evaluated individually combinations their effectiveness increase conditions. evaluation result revealed RMSE values 2.5 days anthesis, 4.4 physiological maturity, 258.3 ha−1 grain 1034 ha−1for above ground biomass with nRMSE 3%, 4%, 4.7% 10%, respectively. d-index 0.87, 0.80, 0.88 0.71 respective parameters. good agreement between simulated measured indicated genetic coefficients calibrated. simulation results at Tehuledere site showed decrease by 11% 20% 2030s 26% 29% 2050s scenarios, respectively whereas Kallu 13% 15% 17% 19% RCP However, scenarios have shown substantially use optimum fertilizer supplemental irrigation. Thus, it can be generalized adversely affect production Semi-arid regions but could reversed sound practices.